Hopefully I'm back writing here, we'll see... Here are some notes on the NFL moving forward.
1. The New York Giants at 7-1
Obviously they are in the elite class of the NFL. But their schedule was insanely front-loaded. Their first 8 games were against teams with a combined record of 26-39, that trend totally reverses itself when you look at their second half schedule, a combined opponents' record of 36-21. They've got trips to all of their NFC East foes' homes left, plus tough-er non-divisional games against Arizona, Carolina and Baltimore. They'll make the playoffs, and may still secure homefield but it will be a tough fight.
2. Could Carolina win home-field in the NFC? What about Tampa Bay? Enough with the NFC East! We get it, the Cowboys are a mess!
I say there's a good chance. They come out of their bye week with @Oakland and home against Detroit. After those two-let's assume wins-their record would stand at 8-2. And then they need to go to Atlanta and to Green Bay. A crucial stretch. I cannot fairly give Carolina both of those games, but I'll give them one. So, going into a week 14 matchup at home against Tampa Bay, their record would be 9-3. Tampa Bay comes out of their week 10 bye to play Minnesota at Raymond James Stadium. It's not the gimme that Oakland or Detroit are, but it's a game Tampa Bay should win. Of course this is a Tampa team that needed overtime to quell Kansas City-er-let's still call it a win. And we'll give them a win the following week at Detroit, making them 8-3. Then we give Tampa Bay a home win over the disappointing Saints, and voila both teams are 9-3 headed into Week 14. A virtual tie for NFC homefield. I just can't see any team in the NFC East getting to week 14 at 9-3. They beat each other up too much, the math is against it.
3. What great parity! No one is the AFC East is particularly good!
Let's start with the Favres. They are 5-3 after an "impressive" win against suddenly mediocre Buffalo. They host St. Louis, then have to go to New England and then to Tennessee. While I think they'll be plenty motivated in the New England game, I think they go 1-2 in that stretch to be 6-5 going into a craptastic week 13 game against the Broncos. Bet the over on the Broncos' game, by the way. This is the hardest one to predict. And I'll say that makes their road to the playoffs that hardest. They can get to eight wins by beating both San Francisco and Seattle. But then they have three tough home games against Denver (Week 13), Buffalo (Week 15), and Miami (Week 17). It's really tough to say what happens there.
Onto the Pats. Wow. There's no other way to say it. They've got Buffalo, Jets, @Miami and Steelers coming up here. Do we believe Buffalo is in free-fall? Can they bounce back and pronounce themselves better than the Patriots? There is no reason the Patriots cannot go 3-1 or 4-0 in this stretch, though. These are not world-beaters (if there are any in the league this year, these aren't them anyway). I'll say they win the first two and lose the back end of this hellish stretch. Call it 7-5, then 9-5 after cupcakes against Seattle and Oakland. Then, I'll give them the 10th win hosting Arizona, which should have secured the NFC West by then, but probably won't be in the running for much else.
Has Bill Parcells done it again? This time even faster than normal? The 4-4 Dolphins should be 6-4 after hosting both Seattle and Oakland, then they could beat New England in Miami. Then they go St. Louis-and I'll assume the Cowboys "upset" and the New England scare was all the moxie the Jim Haslett switch could get out of this putrid team-suddenly the Dolphins are 8-4, the toast of the league. You think Packers' fans concerning themselves with comparing Rodgers to Favre is bad? What about New York fans clamoring for Chad over Brett? It's hard to say in the last four weeks of the season which games actually matter, but the Dolphins could lose both remaining divisional games at Buffalo and at New York, and still get to 10 wins simply by beating San Francisco and Kansas City.
As I move onto the Bills' schedule. The AFC East teams-man, this isn't even fair. Pencil the Bills in for a 3-1 stretch and sending them into a week 14 game 8-4 against Miami that would mean a ton more to Buffalo than to Miami. Again, its hard to say which games matter the last 3-4 weeks of the season but whose schedule would you rather have? Buffalo (@NYJ, DEN, @NE) or Miami (SF, @KC, @NYJ)?
I cannot believe I am saying this. Miami and New England representing the AFC East in the playoffs? The Jets and the Bills sitting at home totally shell shocked by resurgent Miami? I welcome any criticism here. But, I'm calling it now. I look at the schedules, I see a clear path for the Fish and Pats to get to ten wins. The Jets and Bills need to actually play tough games and win them.
4. Texas Tech-Texas
Let's get real: How often does an NFL game deliver on the hype like that game did? Like the 2006 Rose Bowl did? Like Boise State-Oklahoma Chip Bowl? An absolute classic. Michael Crabtree should be a special player at the next level. Texas Tech has a tough schedule the rest of the way that threatens to muddy his Heisman hopes, but I say there is no contest-he is the best player in college football. Denny Maclin or Percy Harvin are not making the play he made to win that game. And I'm not sure Tim Tebow is better than Colt McCoy-or Sam Bradford for that matter.
PS: Why are commissioners hated so much by the fans? I guess I can create reasons why the Celtics' fans booed David Stern when he presented the team with the trophy in June, and why Philly fans booed Bud Seilg on Wednesday. Is this a time-honored tradition now? Did I miss the boat? I'm Gary Bettman gets booed in every REAL hockey town anyway, and I would suspect the Super Bowl crowd to be to blase/non-partisan to boo Goodell.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
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